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The Real Reason Your CPA Won’t Drop
Most teams optimise the wrong lever. Here’s how to spot—and fix—the real constraint.
Daniel Avshalom
July 05, 2025
🧠 Insight Block — The CPI Trap
Your CPA isn’t dropping because you’re solving the wrong problem.
80 % of UA audits I run show retention—not CPI—is the true constraint.
The math is brutal:
Scenario | Result |
|---|---|
-20 % CPI × bad retention | Blended CPA rises |
Flat CPI × +10 % D7 retention | 30 % better unit economics |
Stop chasing cheaper users. Start chasing stickier users.
The real question isn’t “How do I get cheaper installs?”
It’s “Why aren’t my users sticking?”
🧰 Vibe Tool — UA Constraint Finder v2
A full rebuild this week turned the tool from ‘interesting’ to indispensable:
Streamlined two-minute input form
Cross-signal logic (budget + KPI + channel mix)
Instant diagnosis plus a styled email report
Action-ready next-step recommendations
Most audits tell you what you already know.
This one surfaces what you’ve missed.
→ Test your constraint: ua.danielavshalom.me
🛰️ Field Notes — AI-Driven Creative Iteration Cycles
Winning 2025 workflow:
Pull your top-5 % creatives
Feed the latest App Store reviews to an LLM
Generate 10 iterations that echo real user language
Test in 48-hour cycles
Users literally hand you the copy that converts—most teams ignore it.
🎯 Permissionless Play — Duolingo through the Constraint Finder
(live excerpt from Constraint Finder email)
input:
Field | Value |
|---|---|
Monthly UA Budget | 500 k+ USD |
Primary KPI | Day-7 retention above 25 % |
Current Channels | Meta, Apple Search, Google, TikTok |
Top Channel | Meta |
Creative Refresh | Weekly |
MMP | Adjust |
Biggest UA Challenge | High CPA |
Output:
Top constraint
Over-reliance on Meta drives CPAs sky-high once spend crosses the 500 k mark.
Blind-spot scorecard
Creative Ops 4 / 5 · Channel Mix 2 / 5 · Attribution 3 / 5 · Scaling Readiness 2 / 5
Recommended next steps
Shift 25 % of budget into OEM and SDK networks where CPIs run 30–40 % lower.
Launch channel-specific creative that leverages Duolingo’s ★ 4.7 social proof.
Enable Adjust Advanced Analytics to benchmark CPA across channels.
The full analysis lands in your inbox seconds after you run the tool.
Duolingo’s Android Opportunity
OEM pre-installed with Samsung / Xiaomi bundles
Lean on the ★ 4.7 rating as headline social proof
Geo-arbitrage: pre-installs in emerging markets where language apps explode
OEM partnerships deliver 40–60 % lower CPIs than paid ads—yet most teams ignore them.
Spent four hours fixing a “quick” UI bug.
Every stuck moment revealed a user-flow blind spot.
Progress often looks like going backward—so you can sprint forward.
Stop guessing. Find your real constraint in two minutes: ua.danielavshalom.me
Thanks for reading—see you next Saturday.