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Why Your Best UA Managers Think Like Chess Masters

Why Your Best UA Managers Think Like Chess Masters

The 5-question framework that separates tactical optimizers from strategic UA leaders

Daniel Avshalom
November 29, 2025

Most UA managers optimize campaigns. The best ones play strategic chess.

The difference? Tactical thinkers ask "How do I improve this CPI?" Strategic thinkers ask "If I improve this CPI, what happens next?"

Today I'm sharing the Strategic Context Framework: five questions that separate tactical optimizers from strategic UA leaders.

💡 Insight Block: The Chess Master Mindset

The fundamental difference between good and great UA managers isn't their tactical skills—it's how many moves ahead they're thinking.

Most UA work is reactive:

CPI goes up → lower bids
Creative fatigues → launch new variants
Channel underperforms → shift budget

This is playing checkers. You react to what's in front of you.

Strategic UA is chess:

"If I lower bids, what second-order effects will that create?"
"If this creative wins, what does that teach me about my audience?"
"If I shift budget, how will that change my competitive position in 6 months?"

Here's the uncomfortable truth: Your best tactical decision might be your worst strategic move.

The CPI Tunnel Vision Trap

Consider this scenario: You have two campaigns.

Campaign A: $2.50 CPI → 40% install-to-register → 15% register-to-deposit Campaign B: $4.00 CPI → 65% install-to-register → 35% register-to-deposit

Most UA managers immediately scale Campaign A. Lower CPI = better, right?

Run the full funnel math:

Campaign A: 1000 installs × 40% × 15% = 60 depositors at $41.67 CPA
Campaign B: 1000 installs × 65% × 35% = 227 depositors at $17.62 CPA

Campaign B's "terrible" CPI delivers nearly 4x more depositors at less than half the cost per valuable action. Optimizing the wrong metric made you strategically blind.

The Harvesting vs. Sowing Trap

Here's another pattern I see constantly: Teams chase the lowest CPA by targeting users who are already primed to convert—people actively searching, retargeting warm audiences, bottom-funnel intent signals.

This works beautifully... until it doesn't.

You're not building demand. You're harvesting existing demand. When you've captured everyone ready to convert today, there's nobody left. Your "efficient" campaign has depleted the market without replenishing it.

Strategic UA balances harvesting (capturing existing demand) with sowing (building new demand). That upper-funnel campaign with the ugly CPA? It might be filling the pipeline you'll harvest next quarter.

The Metric Isolation Danger

Sometimes a channel delivers "bad" metrics but creates invisible value. That campaign with low conversions might be:

Driving organic search lift (users see your ad, Google you later)
Capturing incremental reach no other channel touches
Building brand awareness that compounds over time

You can't optimize what you can't see. Strategic thinking means acknowledging that UA metrics are a partial picture, not the complete truth.

Strategic thinking isn't about ignoring tactics. It's about placing tactics within a larger context.

🎯 Permissionless Play: The Strategic Review Cadence

Most teams do weekly performance reviews. Few do strategic reviews.

Here's a cadence that separates tactical execution from strategic positioning:

Weekly: Tactical Optimization

Bid adjustments
Creative rotation
Budget pacing
Performance troubleshooting

Monthly: Strategic Assessment

Channel portfolio balance
Competitive positioning shifts
Emerging opportunity evaluation
Resource allocation review

Quarterly: Strategic Positioning

Market landscape analysis
Long-term capability building
Strategic bet evaluation
Assumption testing

The key insight: Tactical reviews ask "Is this working?" Strategic reviews ask "Should we be doing this at all?"

Most UA teams skip the monthly and quarterly layers entirely. They're so busy optimizing that they never step back to question whether they're optimizing the right things.

Block 2 hours monthly for strategic review. Not performance review—strategic review. Different questions, different outcomes.

🛠️ Vibe Tool: The Strategic Decision Scorecard

Before any major UA decision, run it through these five questions.

I've turned this into an interactive tool (link below), but here's the framework:

The 5 Strategic Dimensions

1. Second-Order Effects (Score 1-5) "If this works, what happens next?"

Every successful campaign creates new realities. A winning creative teaches you something. A scaled channel changes your dependency. A hit product creates expectations.

Score 5 = Clear positive ripple effects Score 1 = Success creates new problems

2. Competitive Response (Score 1-5) "How will competitors react?"

Your optimization doesn't happen in a vacuum. If you find a winning audience, competitors will notice. If you dominate a channel, they'll respond.

Score 5 = Creates defensible advantage Score 1 = Invites immediate retaliation

3. Time Horizon (Score 1-5) "Am I trading long-term position for short-term metrics?"

The classic trap: hit this month's targets at the cost of next quarter's foundation. Every short-term win should be evaluated against long-term positioning.

Score 5 = Strengthens future position Score 1 = Mortgages the future for today

4. Strategic Fit (Score 1-5) "Does this strengthen or dilute my overall strategy?"

Not every opportunity is your opportunity. Great strategy means saying no to good things that don't fit.

Score 5 = Reinforces strategic direction Score 1 = Distracts from core strategy

5. Reversibility (Score 1-5) "If I'm wrong, what's the cost?"

Some decisions are two-way doors (easily reversed). Others are one-way doors (permanent or expensive to undo). Know which you're walking through.

Score 5 = Easily reversible, low cost of being wrong Score 1 = Permanent, high cost of failure

How to Use It

Total Score: /25

21-25: Strong strategic decision. Proceed with confidence.
15-20: Proceed with caution. Monitor closely.
10-14: Reconsider. Address weak dimensions first.
Below 10: Don't do it. The strategic cost outweighs tactical benefit.

Try the Strategic Decision Scorecard →

🛰️ Field Notes: When I Learned This the Hard Way

Early in my UA career, I had a "perfect" campaign.

CPI was 40% below target. ROAS was crushing it. The channel was scaling beautifully. Every metric said "pour more money in."

So we did. We scaled aggressively. We hit our quarterly numbers. Leadership was thrilled.

Six months later, that channel represented 70% of our acquisition. When their algorithm changed, our entire UA strategy collapsed overnight.

The tactical decision was flawless. The strategic decision was catastrophic.

I was optimizing for this quarter's metrics while building next quarter's crisis. I never asked: "If this keeps working, what position does that put us in?"

That experience taught me to always run decisions through a strategic filter—not just a performance filter. The best CPI in the world doesn't matter if it creates dependencies that destroy you later.

Now, before any major budget shift, I ask: "What's the second-order effect of this succeeding?"

Here's what nobody tells you about strategic thinking: It feels slower. It feels like overthinking. It feels like you're not "doing" anything.

When everyone around you is optimizing, pausing to think strategically feels unproductive. You're not launching campaigns. You're not hitting buttons. You're just... thinking.

But that thinking is the work.

The UA managers who consistently outperform aren't the ones who optimize fastest. They're the ones who optimize the right things. And knowing what's "right" requires stepping back from the immediate metrics to see the larger game.

I used to think strategic thinking was something you did after you mastered tactics. Now I realize it's the opposite: Strategic context is what makes tactical decisions correct.

Without strategy, you're just making your tactics more efficient at potentially the wrong goal.

🏁 Key Takeaways

Chess, not checkers — Great UA managers think multiple moves ahead, not just the next optimization
Second-order effects matter — Every successful decision creates new realities; anticipate them
Build strategic review cadences — Weekly tactical, monthly strategic, quarterly positioning
Use the 5-dimension scorecard — Second-order effects, competitive response, time horizon, strategic fit, reversibility
Tactical excellence without strategic context is dangerous — You might be getting very good at the wrong thing

The Strategic Decision Scorecard

I built an interactive version of this framework. Score any major UA decision across all 5 dimensions and get a strategic recommendation.